TBBuccaneers
6-9
10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
4 mph
38
CARPanthers
14-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
7
0
10
Panthers
0
24
7
7
38
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
366
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
5.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.32
Passing Yards
309
255
Comp/Att
29/47(62%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.25
Rushing Yards
77
111
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-10.86
-1.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-38
Sack EPA
-3.71
-6.92
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
50
33
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model80.3%
Spread Pick
Panthers-10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+32.7
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
-15.7
Final Difference
244.2
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
13
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
19
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U