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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 17, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-9
10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
4 mph
38
CARPanthers
14-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
7
0
10
Panthers
0
24
7
7
38

Spread

CAR logo
-10

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
386
366
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
5.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.32
Passing Yards
309
255
Comp/Att
29/47(62%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.25
Rushing Yards
77
111
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-10.86
-1.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-38
Sack EPA
-3.71
-6.92
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
50
33
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model80.3%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,377
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
-26.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+32.7
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
-15.8
Final Difference
244.2
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
10/25
4.9
81
11/01
0.6
54
11/08
1.7
63
11/15
-4.4
17
11/22
7.1
91
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78
12/27
-0.2
49
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.7
Value
Ptile
10/25
-3.1
28
11/02
-0.9
45
11/08
8.8
95
11/15
1.2
59
11/22
5.8
86
11/26
1.2
59
12/06
9.3
96
12/13
4.1
79
12/20
11.4
99
12/27
-0.8
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4

EPA

EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
13
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
19
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9

EPA

EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
3
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
1
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-1
L
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
4
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/27
-5
L
L
O
CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
L
O
11/08
8
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/26
19
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
38
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/27
-7
L
L
U