TBBuccaneers
2-1
19
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
4 mph
17
NEPatriots
1-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
7
6
19
Patriots
0
7
0
10
17
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
294
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.06
Passing Yards
261
295
Comp/Att
22/43(51%)
33/42(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.02
Rushing Yards
120
-1
Rush Attempts
30
8
Yards / Rush
4.0
-0.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.22
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-25
Sack EPA
-1.31
-5.62
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
74
77
Penalty EPA
-7.38
-7.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.6%
Spread Pick
Patriots+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,658
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
-143.9
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
9
2
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
9
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U