TBBuccaneers
4-2
45
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
020
OAKRaiders
3-2
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
14
3
21
45
Raiders
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
454
347
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
271
Comp/Att
33/45(73%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.17
Rushing Yards
85
76
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
19
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
83%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.77
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-5.99
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
20
35
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-2.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+9.2
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+12.5
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+13.5
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
30
Yards / Game
9
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
15
23
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
11
19
Raiders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
30
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U