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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ rams week 4, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-2
55
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
74°F
2 mph
40
LARRams
3-0
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
74°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
21
3
18
49
Rams
0
17
3
14
34

Spread

TB logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
464
518
Total Plays
73
82
Yards / Play
6.4
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.02
Passing Yards
376
490
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
45/69(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.04
Rushing Yards
88
28
Rush Attempts
30
11
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
27
36
Passing 1st downs
22
27
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
62%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
83%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-23.56
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-27
Sack EPA
-2.96
-10.81
Penalties
12
13
Penalty Yards
99
106
Penalty EPA
-12.17
-13.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model80.7%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.4%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+287
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+66.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
248.6
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
10/28
-11.8
2
11/25
7.6
91
12/02
2.3
64
12/09
-3.3
26
12/16
-5.9
13
12/23
3.9
74
12/30
7.6
91
09/08
-9.8
5
09/12
-2.3
36
09/22
1.3
62
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
12/09
-13.9
1
12/16
-0.1
46
12/23
3.3
71
12/30
3.9
74
01/12
-2.7
30
01/20
0.9
52
02/03
-8.1
8
09/08
-4.2
25
09/15
1.4
64
09/22
-1.2
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
3
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
26
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
22
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
4
30
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
29
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1

EPA

EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
28
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
6
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-3
L
P
O
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
W
U
12/23
-7
L
P
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-14
L
L
U
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/22
-1
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-9
L
L
U
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
22
W
W
U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/12
8
W
W
O
01/20
3
W
W
U
02/03
-10
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
U