TBBuccaneers
1-2
55
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
74°F
2 mph
40
LARRams
3-0
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
74°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
21
3
18
49
Rams
0
17
3
14
34
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
464
518
Total Plays
73
82
Yards / Play
6.4
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.02
Passing Yards
376
490
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
45/69(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.04
Rushing Yards
88
28
Rush Attempts
30
11
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
36
Passing 1st downs
22
27
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
62%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
83%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-23.56
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-27
Sack EPA
-2.96
-10.81
Penalties
12
13
Penalty Yards
99
106
Penalty EPA
-12.17
-13.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model80.7%
Spread Pick
Rams-9.5
Expected Value
+11.4%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+287
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
248.6
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
3
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
22
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
4
30
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
29
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
28
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U