nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ rams week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-4
7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
34
LARRams
8-2
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
0
0
7
Rams
8
17
0
3
28

Spread

LAR logo
-7

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
193
333
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
2.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.42
+0.09
Passing Yards
70
263
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
2.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.90
+0.23
Rushing Yards
123
70
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
41%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.63
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-33
-10
Sack EPA
-11.32
-1.80
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
10
32
Penalty EPA
-1.60
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model76.0%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,643
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+81.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+23.1
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.5
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
200.6
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
09/07
1.5
61
09/15
2.2
66
09/21
4.4
79
09/28
0.5
56
10/05
11.1
98
10/12
4.5
80
10/20
-6.3
11
10/26
-5.6
14
11/09
4.2
78
11/16
2.6
69
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Value
Ptile
09/07
0.3
54
09/14
2.1
65
09/21
-1.0
43
09/28
6.3
90
10/02
8.1
95
10/12
-1.6
38
10/19
5.4
86
11/02
6.2
89
11/09
5.5
87
11/16
-0.3
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
22
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
9
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
16
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7

EPA

EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
12
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
8
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
U
09/21
2
W
L
O
09/28
-6
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
11
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
U
11/09
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-12
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
5
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
O
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
28
W
W
U
11/02
24
W
W
U
11/09
16
W
W
O
11/16
2
W
L
U