TBBuccaneers
6-7
23
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
031
LARRams
5-8
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
3
17
23
Rams
14
7
7
3
31
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
509
319
Total Plays
77
52
Yards / Play
6.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
221
Comp/Att
29/50(58%)
14/17(82%)
Yards / Pass
--
13.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.71
Rushing Yards
146
98
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
16
Passing 1st downs
21
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.78
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.40
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
56
35
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model60.7%
Spread Pick
Rams-1.0
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+91.1
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.8
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
-68.5
Home QB Adjustment
-56.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
+17.5
Final Difference
75.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-56.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
13
10
EPA / Rush
13
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
20
17
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
32
25
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
24
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U