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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ rams week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-7
23
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
31
LARRams
5-8
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
3
17
23
Rams
14
7
7
3
31

Spread

LAR logo
-1

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
509
319
Total Plays
77
52
Yards / Play
6.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
221
Comp/Att
29/50(58%)
14/17(82%)
Yards / Pass
--
13.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.71
Rushing Yards
146
98
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
30
16
Passing 1st downs
21
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.78
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.40
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
56
35
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-4.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+92.2
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-68.5
Home QB Adjustment
-56.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
+21.0
Final Difference
77.8
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Value
Ptile
10/04
-4.1
21
10/11
-1.0
44
10/25
4.9
81
11/01
0.6
54
11/08
1.7
63
11/15
-4.4
17
11/22
7.1
91
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-56.2
Value
Ptile
11/10
0.7
55
11/17
-5.1
19
11/24
-7.3
10
12/01
-0.3
48
12/05
-3.3
29
12/15
-11.3
2
12/21
-4.6
22
12/28
0.7
54
11/22
-5.0
15
12/13
-6.3
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
13
10
EPA / Rush
13
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
20
17
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9

EPA

EPA / Play
32
25
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
24
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-14
L
L
O
10/11
7
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
4
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
2
W
W
O
10/11
-14
L
L
U
10/25
18
W
W
U
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
P
U
11/29
-24
L
L
U
12/06
-24
L
L
U
12/13
7
W
W
U