TBBuccaneers
7-3
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
3 mph
17
BALRavens
7-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
0
7
10
Ravens
0
17
0
0
17
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
349
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
4.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
257
Comp/Att
17/37(46%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.02
Rushing Yards
101
92
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.10
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
--
-6.92
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
78
--
Penalty EPA
-8.11
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
Ravens-7.5
Expected Value
+23.7%
Cover Probability
64.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+297
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.2
Market Regression
-17.1
Final Difference
245.6
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
8
8
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Ravens Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
22
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U