TBBuccaneers
1-0
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
010
NOSaints
1-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
3
11
14
Saints
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
308
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.42
Passing Yards
188
208
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.52
Rushing Yards
72
100
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.69
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.53
-25.10
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-2
-28
Sack EPA
-1.04
-5.01
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
101
60
Penalty EPA
-8.79
-11.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,654
Home Field
+26.9
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
-16.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
-6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
24
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U