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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ saints week 2, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-0
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
10
NOSaints
1-0
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
3
11
14
Saints
3
0
0
7
10

Spread

TB logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
260
308
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.42
Passing Yards
188
208
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.52
Rushing Yards
72
100
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.69
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.53
-25.10
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-2
-28
Sack EPA
-1.04
-5.01
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
101
60
Penalty EPA
-8.79
-11.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+26.9
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
-16.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
-6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
11/28
-1.5
42
12/05
8.3
93
12/12
10.1
96
12/19
-8.2
7
12/26
1.9
67
01/02
6.0
87
01/09
8.8
94
01/16
1.7
66
01/23
-1.1
44
09/11
-1.8
39
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
12/21
-9.7
5
12/29
-4.8
21
09/12
8.4
94
09/19
-9.9
4
09/26
-2.8
32
10/03
1.5
64
10/10
1.3
62
10/25
-0.9
45
10/31
-1.6
41
09/11
-0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
24
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15

EPA

EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
6
W
W
O
12/19
-9
L
L
U
12/26
26
W
W
U
01/02
4
W
L
O
01/09
24
W
W
O
01/16
16
W
W
O
01/23
-3
L
L
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
-2
L
W
P
11/21
-11
L
L
O
11/25
-25
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/12
21
W
W
U
12/19
9
W
W
U
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/02
8
W
W
U
01/09
10
W
W
O
09/11
1
W
L
O