TBBuccaneers
2-5
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
030
NOSaints
5-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
0
7
10
Saints
3
7
14
0
24
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
200
407
Total Plays
57
60
Yards / Play
3.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.03
Passing Yards
113
256
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
22/27(81%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.45
Rushing Yards
87
151
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
31%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+0.49
-4.86
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-7
Sack EPA
-5.70
-0.93
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-3.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+7.0
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+40.5
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
138.3
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U