TBBuccaneers
8-6
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
6-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
14
3
24
Saints
7
6
15
3
31
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
419
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
6.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.14
Passing Yards
260
294
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.24
Rushing Yards
89
125
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
58%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.14
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-3.00
-2.85
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
63
59
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-3.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+16.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
10
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
16
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U