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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ texans week 2, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-0
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
19
HOUTexans
0-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
7
0
6
20
Texans
10
0
0
9
19

Spread

TB logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
360
266
Total Plays
73
47
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.00
Passing Yards
191
182
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.18
Rushing Yards
169
84
Rush Attempts
30
19
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.35
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
25
12
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
43%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-25
Sack EPA
-7.38
-6.39
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-5.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+58.6
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-9.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
11/10
-2.9
29
11/24
8.4
94
12/01
-6.5
10
12/08
-1.8
36
12/15
9.2
95
12/22
3.9
75
12/29
11.8
99
01/05
4.5
78
01/12
3.0
70
09/07
1.5
61
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Value
Ptile
11/10
-7.3
8
11/18
0.4
51
11/24
-4.3
21
12/01
-2.2
33
12/15
-3.7
24
12/21
-1.1
41
12/25
-8.4
4
01/11
1.0
55
01/18
-3.5
25
09/07
-3.4
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Texans Defense
Buccaneers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Texans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Texans logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7

EPA

EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
30
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
30
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/24
23
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
15
W
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
O
12/22
-2
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
8
W
L
O
01/12
-3
L
L
U
09/07
3
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
24
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
L
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/25
-29
L
L
U
01/05
9
W
W
O
01/11
20
W
W
O
01/18
-9
L
W
U
09/07
-5
L
L
U