TBBuccaneers
1-0
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
019
HOUTexans
0-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
7
0
6
20
Texans
10
0
0
9
19
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
266
Total Plays
73
47
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.00
Passing Yards
191
182
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.18
Rushing Yards
169
84
Rush Attempts
30
19
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.35
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
12
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
43%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-25
Sack EPA
-7.38
-6.39
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+58.6
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-9.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
15
3
EPA / Rush
15
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
29
24
Texans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
31
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U