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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ titans week 8, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
2-4
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
3 mph
27
TENTitans
3-4
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
12
8
0
23
Titans
14
3
3
7
27

Spread

TEN logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
391
246
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
5.0
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
285
174
Comp/Att
21/45(47%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
106
72
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.64
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-13.67
-5.09
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-7.60
-5.45
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
87
77
Penalty EPA
-10.42
-6.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
+52.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-40.9
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.4
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
Value
Ptile
12/09
-3.3
26
12/16
-5.9
13
12/23
3.9
74
12/30
7.6
91
09/08
-9.8
5
09/12
-2.3
36
09/22
1.3
62
09/29
7.9
93
10/06
-5.7
17
10/13
-12.3
2
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
7.7
92
09/30
-8.7
7
10/07
-7.1
10
11/25
2.4
66
12/02
-2.1
32
12/09
2.8
69
12/16
-13.8
1
12/23
-3.5
24
12/30
-9.0
6
10/20
3.3
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Titans Defense
Buccaneers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13

EPA

EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
26
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Titans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Titans logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1

EPA

EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
4
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
1
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
W
U
12/23
-7
L
P
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-14
L
L
U
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/22
-1
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-11
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
17
W
W
U
12/22
9
W
L
O
12/30
-16
L
L
O
09/08
30
W
W
O
09/15
-2
L
L
U
09/19
-13
L
L
U
09/29
14
W
W
U
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-16
L
L
U
10/20
3
W
P
O