TBBuccaneers
2-4
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
3 mph
27
TENTitans
3-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
12
8
0
23
Titans
14
3
3
7
27
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
246
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
5.0
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
285
174
Comp/Att
21/45(47%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
106
72
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.64
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-13.67
-5.09
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-7.60
-5.45
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
87
77
Penalty EPA
-10.42
-6.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+2.2
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-40.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.3
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Titans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
4
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
1
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U