TBBuccaneers
-
20
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
017
MINVikings
-
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
7
3
20
Vikings
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
242
369
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
3.6
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.15
Passing Yards
169
328
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
33/44(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.01
Rushing Yards
73
41
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
2.2
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
35%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-16
Sack EPA
-1.35
-7.01
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
19
45
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-6.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+34.8
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+42.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-40.7
Market Regression
-47.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-40.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U