TBBuccaneers
0-1
24
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
020
MINVikings
0-1
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
10
14
24
Vikings
7
10
0
3
20
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
398
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.05
Passing Yards
230
212
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.05
Rushing Yards
105
186
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.78
-0.06
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-3.15
-2.67
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
53
65
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-7.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
Vikings-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-19.6
Final Difference
45.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
29
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
29
31
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
18
26
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U