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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ vikings week 2, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
0-1
24
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
20
MINVikings
0-1
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
10
14
24
Vikings
7
10
0
3
20

Spread

TB logo
+1

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
335
398
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.05
Passing Yards
230
212
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.05
Rushing Yards
105
186
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.78
-0.06
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-3.15
-2.67
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
53
65
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-7.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-20.6
Final Difference
44.8
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
11/07
-2.2
35
11/14
6.4
89
11/21
0.3
51
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
1.6
58
12/19
1.8
59
12/26
9.9
97
01/02
4.7
81
09/11
1.6
63
D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
10/10
-1.9
38
10/17
-3.5
26
10/24
-6.1
13
10/31
-4.1
24
11/15
-2.2
34
11/21
1.9
60
11/28
-4.3
21
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
3.1
70
09/11
-5.0
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10

EPA

EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
29
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
29
31
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
18
26
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
2
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
8
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-6
L
W
O
11/14
15
W
W
O
11/21
21
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
W
U
12/05
-4
L
L
O
12/12
1
W
P
U
12/19
-3
L
L
P
12/26
23
W
W
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/21
-28
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
W
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/13
-18
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/02
-7
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
W
U