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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
0-4
28
TBD
Levi's Stadium
79°F
15 mph
18
SF49ers
1-3
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
79°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
0
8
22
49ers
6
0
0
12
18

Spread

ARI logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
220
447
Total Plays
49
95
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.21
Passing Yards
164
300
Comp/Att
10/25(40%)
34/56(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.11
Rushing Yards
56
147
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
10
33
Passing 1st downs
5
22
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-28.74
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-49
Sack EPA
-0.82
-18.25
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
46
65
Penalty EPA
-4.75
-7.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.5%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,369
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.4
Home QB Adjustment
-57.0
Away QB Adjustment
-28.6
Market Regression
-19.8
Final Difference
104.0
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Rosen headshot

J. Rosen

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-28.6
Value
Ptile
09/30
0.0
46
C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-57.0
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16
11/12
6.3
88
11/26
-4.9
20
09/30
1.0
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13

EPA

EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
18
RZ Efficiency
8
26
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
28
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
3
W
W
O
12/03
-16
L
L
O
12/10
5
W
W
U
12/17
-5
L
L
U
12/24
23
W
W
U
12/31
2
W
W
O
09/09
-18
L
L
U
09/16
-34
L
L
U
09/23
-2
L
W
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-11
L
L
U
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/10
10
W
W
U
12/17
2
W
L
O
12/24
11
W
W
O
12/31
21
W
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
3
W
L
O
09/23
-11
L
L
O
09/30
-2
L
W
O