ARICardinals
8-2
19
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
4 mph
13
SF49ers
3-7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
3
7
6
19
49ers
0
3
10
0
13
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
368
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
4.8
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.02
Passing Yards
267
301
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.04
Rushing Yards
70
67
Rush Attempts
29
17
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
7
--
3rd Down %
50%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.82
-4.18
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-17
Sack EPA
-1.02
-5.11
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-12.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
Cardinals-8.5
Expected Value
+20.2%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-317
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+22.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.0
Net QB Adjustment
-119.1
Home QB Adjustment
-91.2
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
+13.9
Final Difference
-270.6
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-91.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
17
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
11
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
2
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
10
21
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U