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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 12, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
8-2
19
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
4 mph
13
SF49ers
3-7
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
3
7
6
19
49ers
0
3
10
0
13

Spread

SF logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
337
368
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
4.8
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.02
Passing Yards
267
301
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.04
Rushing Yards
70
67
Rush Attempts
29
17
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
7
--
3rd Down %
50%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.82
-4.18
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-17
Sack EPA
-1.02
-5.11
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-12.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.2%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-317
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+22.9
Base HFA
+61.9
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-119.1
Home QB Adjustment
-91.2
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
+13.9
Final Difference
-270.8
Model Spread
+11.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
Value
Ptile
09/13
6.9
90
09/20
2.9
72
09/27
2.7
70
10/04
-0.7
46
10/11
1.0
56
10/18
1.7
63
10/26
2.4
67
11/01
7.1
91
11/15
3.5
75
11/22
3.3
75
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-91.2
Value
Ptile
10/21
-2.0
36
10/28
0.8
55
11/04
-0.2
48
11/08
-5.3
16
11/18
-4.1
24
09/08
-14.5
0
09/29
-11.1
2
10/06
-6.8
11
11/08
-0.9
45
11/22
2.7
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
17
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
11
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
2
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
10
21
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
9
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
31
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
12
W
W
O
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
40
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
O
10/11
25
W
W
O
10/18
-12
L
L
U
10/26
8
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/15
7
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-40
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-3
L
W
O
10/18
5
W
W
O
10/22
-17
L
L
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/08
1
W
W
U
11/22
-16
L
L
O