nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ARI logo
ARICardinals
11-4
17
TBD
Levi's Stadium
51°F
3 mph
20
SF49ers
7-8
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
51°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
0
0
17
49ers
7
6
7
0
20

Spread

ARI logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
397
395
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
5.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.16
Passing Yards
299
189
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.26
Rushing Yards
98
206
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.75
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-15
Sack EPA
-2.03
-2.08
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
21
78
Penalty EPA
-2.94
-3.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+97.4
Home QB Adjustment
-21.3
Away QB Adjustment
-118.7
Market Regression
+20.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Lindley headshot

R. Lindley

Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-118.7
Value
Ptile
11/25
-7.0
9
12/02
-11.4
2
12/16
-5.3
17
12/23
-5.5
15
12/21
-9.0
6
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
Value
Ptile
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24
11/02
-6.5
12
11/09
-4.5
23
11/16
-1.0
43
11/23
-1.4
40
11/27
-9.9
4
12/07
-9.3
5
12/14
-5.2
19
12/20
9.0
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
28
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7

EPA

EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
31
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
28
28
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17

EPA

EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
20
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
19
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
11
W
W
U
10/26
4
W
W
U
11/02
11
W
W
P
11/09
17
W
W
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
-16
L
L
U
11/30
-11
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/21
-29
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/23
4
W
L
U
11/27
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-11
L
L
U
12/14
-10
L
P
U
12/20
-3
L
L
O