ARICardinals
11-4
17
TBD
Levi's Stadium
51°F
3 mph
20
SF49ers
7-8
TBD
Levi's Stadium
51°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
0
0
17
49ers
7
6
7
0
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
395
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
5.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.16
Passing Yards
299
189
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.26
Rushing Yards
98
206
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.75
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-15
Sack EPA
-2.03
-2.08
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
21
78
Penalty EPA
-2.94
-3.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+97.4
Home QB Adjustment
-21.3
Away QB Adjustment
-118.7
Market Regression
+19.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Lindley
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-118.7
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
28
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
31
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
28
28
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
19
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U