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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ bills week 1, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
-
28
TBD
New Era Field
61°F
20 mph
34
BUFBills
-
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
61°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
0
11
28
Bills
0
10
14
10
34

Spread

ARI logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
272
352
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.26
Passing Yards
146
222
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.40
Rushing Yards
126
130
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
54%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.93
-6.04
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-9.31
-6.52
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-9.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model78.1%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+22.2%
Cover Probability
64.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+277
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+80.0
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
+16.8
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
+8.6
Final Difference
221.3
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
4.3
82
12/12
-4.4
21
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
12/03
-1.9
35
12/17
-0.8
45
12/24
2.8
69
12/31
5.5
84
01/07
4.9
81
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Value
Ptile
11/13
-1.6
39
11/19
4.5
78
11/26
11.3
98
12/10
-1.1
42
12/17
-0.3
47
12/23
4.1
76
12/31
0.7
54
01/07
5.9
86
01/15
12.0
99
01/21
11.2
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Bills Defense
Cardinals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
13

EPA

EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
30
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
17
17
Bills Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Bills logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20

EPA

EPA / Play
2
25
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
3
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
2
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-7
L
W
O
11/05
-27
L
L
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/17
-16
L
L
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
4
W
W
O
01/07
-1
L
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-2
L
L
U
11/19
26
W
W
U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/17
21
W
W
U
12/23
2
W
L
O
12/31
6
W
L
O
01/07
7
W
W
U
01/15
14
W
W
O
01/21
-3
L
L
O