ARICardinals
-
28
TBD
New Era Field
61°F
20 mph
34
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
61°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
0
11
28
Bills
0
10
14
10
34
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
352
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.26
Passing Yards
146
222
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.40
Rushing Yards
126
130
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
54%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.93
-6.04
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-9.31
-6.52
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-9.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
Bills-6.5
Expected Value
+22.2%
Cover Probability
64.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+282
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+79.2
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
+16.6
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
+8.7
Final Difference
224.2
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
30
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
17
17
Bills Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
25
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
3
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U