ARICardinals
1-1
18
TBD
New Era Field
64°F
8 mph
33
BUFBills
0-2
TBD
New Era Field
64°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
6
3
16
Bills
10
7
7
3
27
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
297
Total Plays
78
61
Yards / Play
4.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.14
Passing Yards
260
89
Comp/Att
26/51(51%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.28
Rushing Yards
88
208
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
17
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-25.54
-0.66
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-27
-30
Sack EPA
-2.90
-5.64
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
50
75
Penalty EPA
-6.00
-9.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model59.2%
Spread Pick
Bills+5.5
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+98.0
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-64.9
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
29
EPA
EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Bills Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
1
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U