ARICardinals
5-0
37
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
23 mph
14
CLEBrowns
3-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
16
7
7
37
Browns
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
290
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.29
Passing Yards
208
217
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.32
Rushing Yards
144
73
Rush Attempts
37
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
53%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
57%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.01
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-21
-23
Sack EPA
-4.10
-16.42
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
45
88
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-11.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+26.6
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Browns Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
4
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
15
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U