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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ browns week 6, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
5-0
37
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
23 mph
14
CLEBrowns
3-2
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
23 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
16
7
7
37
Browns
0
14
0
0
14

Spread

ARI logo
+3

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
352
290
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.29
Passing Yards
208
217
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.32
Rushing Yards
144
73
Rush Attempts
37
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
53%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
57%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.01
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-21
-23
Sack EPA
-4.10
-16.42
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
45
88
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-11.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+26.6
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
12/06
-1.0
38
12/13
3.7
71
12/20
11.0
97
12/26
0.1
47
01/03
-4.3
18
09/12
5.6
86
09/19
8.9
95
09/26
4.4
81
10/03
5.4
85
10/10
-0.9
46
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
12/20
7.2
89
12/27
-7.3
7
01/03
1.8
57
01/10
7.3
90
01/17
-2.3
28
09/12
-0.1
53
09/19
-0.1
53
09/26
-2.0
38
10/03
-8.1
8
10/10
6.1
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Browns Defense
Cardinals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11

EPA

EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
12
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Browns Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Browns logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
4
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
15
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
12
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-10
L
L
O
12/13
19
W
W
U
12/20
7
W
W
O
12/26
-8
L
L
U
01/03
-11
L
L
U
09/12
25
W
W
U
09/19
1
W
L
O
09/26
12
W
W
U
10/03
17
W
W
O
10/10
7
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
2
W
L
O
01/10
11
W
W
O
01/17
-5
L
W
U
09/12
-4
L
W
O
09/19
10
W
L
O
09/26
20
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/10
-5
L
L
O