ARICardinals
2-8
10
TBD
StubHub Center
74°F
3 mph
45
LACChargers
7-3
TBD
StubHub Center
74°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
10
0
0
0
10
Chargers
0
28
14
3
45
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
149
414
Total Plays
45
66
Yards / Play
3.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.41
+0.28
Passing Yards
87
236
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
28/32(88%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.34
Rushing Yards
62
178
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
30
Passing 1st downs
4
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
7
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-5.13
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-18
-23
Sack EPA
-3.73
-9.28
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-3.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+281
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+51.9
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-45.7
Market Regression
+64.3
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-45.7
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
9
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Chargers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
9
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U