ARICardinals
0-1
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
013
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cardinals
0
3
0
10
3
16
Colts
10
0
0
3
0
13
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
266
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
6.0
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.17
Passing Yards
306
190
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.16
Rushing Yards
83
76
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
-5.82
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-26
-26
Sack EPA
-4.95
-3.58
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
41
70
Penalty EPA
-5.68
-8.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
Colts+7.0
Expected Value
+15.6%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+98.1
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+37.4
Home QB Adjustment
+30.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-99.4
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
31
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
30
15
Colts Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
31
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6
EPA
EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
18
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
9-1
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U