ARICardinals
1-0
21
TBD
FedExField
66°F
7 mph
22
WASCommanders
1-0
TBD
FedExField
66°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
0
7
7
21
Commanders
0
10
0
12
22
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
455
Total Plays
48
80
Yards / Play
6.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.04
Passing Yards
231
283
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.01
Rushing Yards
93
172
Rush Attempts
15
35
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.40
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
33%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
50%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.85
-9.70
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-8
Sack EPA
-2.98
-1.52
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
97
15
Penalty EPA
-13.19
-1.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-35.7
Home QB Adjustment
-15.5
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
9
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
29
26
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U