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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ commanders week 2, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
1-0
21
TBD
FedExField
66°F
7 mph
22
WASCommanders
1-0
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
66°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
0
7
7
21
Commanders
0
10
0
12
22

Spread

ARI logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
324
455
Total Plays
48
80
Yards / Play
6.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.04
Passing Yards
231
283
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.01
Rushing Yards
93
172
Rush Attempts
15
35
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.40
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
33%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
50%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.85
-9.70
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-8
Sack EPA
-2.98
-1.52
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
97
15
Penalty EPA
-13.19
-1.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-35.7
Home QB Adjustment
-15.5
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

K. Kolb headshot

K. Kolb

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
1.9
63
09/27
10.2
97
09/12
-7.7
8
10/10
1.1
55
10/17
7.9
93
10/24
-2.2
34
01/02
-12.6
1
09/11
4.3
78
R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
Value
Ptile
09/23
-9.7
2
11/18
-0.8
43
11/25
-5.2
17
12/02
-2.3
35
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.7
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17

EPA

EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
9
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
15
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
29
26
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
28
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-18
L
L
O
11/21
-18
L
L
U
11/29
-21
L
L
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
30
W
W
O
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/25
1
W
W
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-31
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
W
U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
12/19
-3
L
W
O
12/26
3
W
W
U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
14
W
W
O