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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ cowboys week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
6-1
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
17
DALCowboys
6-2
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
14
0
14
28
Cowboys
4
0
0
7
11

Spread

ARI logo
+1.5

Total

PUSH
45
P

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
339
266
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.2
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.26
Passing Yards
237
174
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.23
Rushing Yards
102
92
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
60%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.64
-8.88
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-9
Sack EPA
-3.28
-1.37
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
62
33
Penalty EPA
-6.54
-4.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-125.1
Home QB Adjustment
-99.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
-35.0
Final Difference
-0.0
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
Value
Ptile
11/24
3.9
77
12/01
-3.1
31
12/08
5.5
85
12/15
0.2
51
12/22
-8.9
5
12/29
5.0
83
09/08
5.3
83
10/12
2.1
66
10/19
1.1
58
10/26
3.0
71
B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-99.8
Value
Ptile
11/25
-3.6
27
12/02
1.4
59
12/09
-2.9
30
12/16
-3.6
27
12/23
-3.9
25
09/08
-11.2
2
09/15
-4.5
22
10/13
-0.3
48
10/20
-8.4
6
12/01
1.2
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8

EPA

EPA / Play
26
21
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
31
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
17

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
8
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
27
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
3
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
3
W
P
O
12/22
7
W
W
U
12/29
-3
L
L
O
09/08
1
W
L
U
09/14
11
W
W
U
09/21
9
W
W
U
10/05
-21
L
L
O
10/12
10
W
W
O
10/19
11
W
W
U
10/26
4
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
1
W
L
U
12/29
-2
L
W
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
3
W
W
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
L
U
10/12
7
W
W
O
10/19
10
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U