ARICardinals
6-1
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
017
DALCowboys
6-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
14
0
14
28
Cowboys
4
0
0
7
11
Spread
+1.5
Total
PUSH
45
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
266
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.2
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.26
Passing Yards
237
174
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.23
Rushing Yards
102
92
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
60%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.64
-8.88
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-9
Sack EPA
-3.28
-1.37
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
62
33
Penalty EPA
-6.54
-4.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-125.1
Home QB Adjustment
-99.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
0.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-99.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
21
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
31
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
27
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U