ARICardinals
3-4
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
14 mph
27
MIADolphins
2-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
9
10
26
Dolphins
10
3
7
7
27
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
377
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
6.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.24
Passing Yards
--
227
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.23
Rushing Yards
82
150
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.50
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+59.7
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.7
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
9
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
8
11
EPA / Pass
11
12
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Dolphins Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
18
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
31
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U