ARICardinals
5-6
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
18 mph
26
MIADolphins
7-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
6
3
0
14
23
Dolphins
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
314
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
4.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.23
Passing Yards
127
231
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.33
Rushing Yards
175
83
Rush Attempts
27
31
Yards / Rush
6.5
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-13.88
-9.00
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-11
Sack EPA
-4.08
-1.87
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
54
118
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-11.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+77.6
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
-45.0
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Dolphins Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
18
3
EPA / Rush
19
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U