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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ eagles week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
7-4
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
46°F
4 mph
24
PHIEagles
6-5
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
46°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
7
7
21
Eagles
7
10
7
0
24

Spread

ARI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
350
307
Total Plays
68
73
Yards / Play
5.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
260
202
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.10
Rushing Yards
90
105
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.26
--
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-42
-35
Sack EPA
-11.48
-7.36
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
55
48
Penalty EPA
-7.47
-4.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+102.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-26.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
+8.5
Final Difference
135.0
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
09/15
-1.8
41
09/22
-10.4
3
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35
11/10
1.2
58
11/17
6.2
87
11/24
3.9
77
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Value
Ptile
11/26
-2.4
34
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
4.3
77
12/13
-3.1
29
12/23
-0.8
44
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
-9.6
4
11/03
16.9
100
11/10
3.9
77
11/17
3.9
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13

EPA

EPA / Play
21
21
EPA / Pass
19
20
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
24
12
Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
2
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
1

EPA

EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
2
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
18
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
12
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
13
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
29
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/29
-32
L
L
O
10/06
15
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O
10/20
-14
L
L
U
10/27
-8
L
L
U
11/03
29
W
W
O
11/10
14
W
W
U
11/17
8
W
W
U