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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ falcons week 11, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-5
19
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
23
ATLFalcons
8-1
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
13
3
0
3
19
Falcons
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

ARI logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
178
354
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
3.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.33
Passing Yards
41
296
Comp/Att
11/27(41%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.92
-0.49
Rushing Yards
137
58
Rush Attempts
26
24
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
7
20
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
13%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.87
-29.74
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-5
Sack EPA
-10.82
-1.50
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
43
35
Penalty EPA
-5.53
-6.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+270
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+34.9
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
-13.2
Final Difference
234.2
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

J. Skelton headshot

J. Skelton

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
Value
Ptile
11/13
-0.8
46
11/20
-12.0
1
11/27
-8.7
4
12/18
-0.6
47
12/24
-6.8
10
01/01
0.2
54
09/09
-5.1
19
10/21
-5.7
14
10/29
-2.5
33
11/04
-2.0
36
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Value
Ptile
01/08
-3.0
31
09/09
12.4
99
09/17
4.0
75
09/23
5.2
82
09/30
-0.7
44
10/07
4.5
79
10/14
-3.6
27
10/28
7.5
91
11/04
2.7
66
11/11
6.7
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
32
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
19

EPA

EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
32
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
8
17
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28

EPA

EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
30
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
9
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
3
W
W
O
09/09
4
W
W
U
09/16
2
W
W
U
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
U
10/21
-7
L
P
U
10/29
-21
L
L
U
11/04
-14
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-22
L
L
U
09/09
16
W
W
O
09/17
6
W
W
U
09/23
24
W
W
U
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
7
W
W
U
10/14
3
W
L
U
10/28
13
W
W
O
11/04
6
W
W
U
11/11
-4
L
L
O