ARICardinals
4-5
19
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
8-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
13
3
0
3
19
Falcons
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
178
354
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
3.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.33
Passing Yards
41
296
Comp/Att
11/27(41%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.92
-0.49
Rushing Yards
137
58
Rush Attempts
26
24
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
20
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
13%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.87
-29.74
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-5
Sack EPA
-10.82
-1.50
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
43
35
Penalty EPA
-5.53
-6.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
Falcons-9.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+275
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+34.9
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
-12.2
Final Difference
235.2
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
32
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
19
EPA
EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
32
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
17
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28
EPA
EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U