ARICardinals
4-5
19
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
038
ATLFalcons
6-4
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
6
0
6
19
Falcons
7
10
7
14
38
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
360
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
5.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.25
Passing Yards
274
244
Comp/Att
25/46(54%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.17
Rushing Yards
58
116
Rush Attempts
14
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
-3.44
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-25
Sack EPA
-2.89
-5.05
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
23
Penalty EPA
-12.06
-2.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+114.0
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+27.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
21
22
EPA / Rush
20
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9
EPA
EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
1
3
EPA / Rush
4
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U