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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ falcons week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-5
19
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
38
ATLFalcons
6-4
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
6
0
6
19
Falcons
7
10
7
14
38

Spread

ATL logo
-4

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
332
360
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
5.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.25
Passing Yards
274
244
Comp/Att
25/46(54%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.17
Rushing Yards
58
116
Rush Attempts
14
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
-3.44
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-25
Sack EPA
-2.89
-5.05
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
23
Penalty EPA
-12.06
-2.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+115.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
+27.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
01/24
-9.2
3
09/11
1.8
63
09/18
4.1
79
09/25
-13.2
0
10/02
-2.0
34
10/17
1.1
57
10/23
0.2
50
10/30
1.0
56
11/13
0.2
50
11/20
-5.8
13
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Value
Ptile
09/11
4.1
79
09/18
8.1
93
09/26
1.6
60
10/02
12.5
99
10/09
0.7
55
10/16
3.4
75
10/23
-1.7
35
10/30
8.1
93
11/03
8.0
92
11/13
-2.2
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17

EPA

EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
21
22
EPA / Rush
20
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9

EPA

EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
1
3
EPA / Rush
4
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
9
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-2
L
L
U
09/18
33
W
W
U
09/25
-15
L
L
O
10/02
-4
L
L
U
10/06
12
W
W
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/23
0
T
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/13
3
W
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/26
13
W
W
O
10/02
15
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
1
W
L
O
11/03
15
W
W
O
11/13
-9
L
L
U