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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ jaguars week 3, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
2-0
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
4 mph
19
JAXJaguars
0-2
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
0
11
7
25
Jaguars
0
7
6
0
13

Spread

ARI logo
-8

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
407
361
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
6.4
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
202
Comp/Att
28/34(82%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.38
Rushing Yards
91
159
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
11%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
1
2
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.97
-18.19
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-7.73
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
58
40
Penalty EPA
-6.12
-4.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market76.2%
Model72.4%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-130
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+58.8
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
-32.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+17.0
Market Regression
-2.2
Final Difference
-167.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Value
Ptile
11/15
5.4
80
11/19
1.0
51
11/29
-2.9
24
12/06
-1.0
38
12/13
3.7
71
12/20
11.0
97
12/26
0.1
47
01/03
-4.3
18
09/12
5.6
86
09/19
8.9
95
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.8
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29
09/19
-8.8
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
12
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
1
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
30
RZ Efficiency
14
24
Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
27
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
28
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
2
W
L
O
11/19
-7
L
L
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
O
12/13
19
W
W
U
12/20
7
W
W
O
12/26
-8
L
L
U
01/03
-11
L
L
U
09/12
25
W
W
U
09/19
1
W
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-4
L
W
U
11/22
-24
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
P
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/27
-24
L
L
O
01/03
-14
L
W
U
09/12
-16
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U