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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ jaguars week 11, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
5-4
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
14
JAXJaguars
1-8
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
10
3
27
Jaguars
14
0
0
0
14

Spread

ARI logo
-9

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
416
274
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.14
Passing Yards
402
242
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.19
Rushing Yards
14
32
Rush Attempts
24
16
Yards / Rush
0.6
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.94
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-4.17
-3.56
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-4.97
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model72.3%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.2%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,217
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
-167.0
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
12/23
-4.5
22
09/08
1.2
59
09/15
-1.8
41
09/22
-10.4
3
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35
11/10
1.2
58
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
12/09
-9.0
4
12/16
-2.2
34
12/23
-1.2
40
12/30
-6.8
10
09/15
-2.0
38
09/22
-7.7
9
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
-5.9
15
10/27
3.2
72
11/10
-8.0
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
29

EPA

EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
26
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1

EPA

EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
30
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
4
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
32
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-14
L
W
O
09/08
-3
L
W
O
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-18
L
L
O
09/08
-26
L
L
U
09/15
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-28
L
L
O
09/29
-34
L
L
U
10/06
-14
L
L
O
10/13
-16
L
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-32
L
L
O
11/10
2
W
W
O