ARICardinals
5-4
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
14
JAXJaguars
1-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
10
3
27
Jaguars
14
0
0
0
14
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
274
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.14
Passing Yards
402
242
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.19
Rushing Yards
14
32
Rush Attempts
24
16
Yards / Rush
0.6
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.94
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-4.17
-3.56
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-4.97
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model72.4%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+9.0
Expected Value
+16.9%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-123
Home nfelo
1,220
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
-15.7
Final Difference
-167.2
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
4
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U