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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ jets week 13, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-7
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
6 mph
7
NYJJets
4-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
3
0
3
6
Jets
0
0
0
7
7

Spread

ARI logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
137
289
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
2.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.44
-0.32
Passing Yards
56
112
Comp/Att
10/31(32%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
1.8
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.70
-0.68
Rushing Yards
81
177
Rush Attempts
21
43
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
5
20
Passing 1st downs
2
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
0%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.41
-14.57
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-14
Sack EPA
-2.94
-4.99
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-2.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.2
Market Regression
+45.0
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Lindley headshot

R. Lindley

Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-17.2
Value
Ptile
11/25
-7.0
9
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
09/16
-4.9
19
09/23
-3.2
28
09/30
-9.9
2
10/08
-5.6
15
10/14
-2.0
36
10/21
-0.9
43
10/28
-4.1
24
11/11
-8.3
5
11/18
-1.9
37
11/22
1.3
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Jets Defense
Cardinals logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
20
Yards / Game
32
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26

EPA

EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Jets Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Jets logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
17
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28

EPA

EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
15
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
25
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
2
W
W
U
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
U
10/21
-7
L
P
U
10/29
-21
L
L
U
11/04
-14
L
L
O
11/18
-4
L
W
U
11/25
-14
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-17
L
L
U
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-34
L
L
U
10/08
-6
L
W
U
10/14
26
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-21
L
L
O
11/11
-21
L
L
U
11/18
14
W
W
O
11/22
-30
L
L
O