ARICardinals
-
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
035
DETLions
-
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
4
0
7
6
17
Lions
0
9
6
14
29
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
367
Total Plays
68
72
Yards / Play
4.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.22
Passing Yards
263
285
Comp/Att
27/49(55%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.07
Rushing Yards
45
82
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.30
-11.60
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-7
Sack EPA
-1.89
-1.78
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
55
100
Penalty EPA
-5.88
-10.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model49.1%
Spread Pick
Lions+2.0
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+98.0
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
-36.0
Final Difference
6.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
31
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
21
RZ Efficiency
30
28
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
12
9
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
3
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U