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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ lions week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-1
42
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
17
DETLions
0-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
28
7
7
42
Lions
7
0
0
10
17

Spread

ARI logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
345
435
Total Plays
45
89
Yards / Play
7.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.22
Passing Yards
158
379
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
41/70(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.20
Rushing Yards
187
56
Rush Attempts
25
18
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.33
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
7
22
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
13%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
6
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-28.45
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.70
-0.56
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
70
85
Penalty EPA
-3.30
-8.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model59.6%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
-21.7
Final Difference
-67.9
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
5.3
83
10/12
2.1
66
10/19
1.1
58
10/26
3.0
71
11/02
0.6
54
11/09
-4.0
26
09/13
6.9
90
09/20
2.9
72
09/27
2.7
70
10/04
-0.7
46
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
11/27
8.0
91
12/07
4.4
80
12/14
-0.5
47
12/21
-10.2
3
12/28
2.2
67
01/04
0.5
52
09/13
-1.6
39
09/20
2.4
67
09/27
-2.5
33
10/05
1.3
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
2
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20

EPA

EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
11
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
9
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
27
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8

EPA

EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
19
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
2
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-11
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/21
-29
L
L
O
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O
09/13
12
W
W
O
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
40
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
17
W
W
O
12/07
17
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/21
6
W
L
U
12/28
-10
L
L
O
01/04
-4
L
W
U
09/13
-5
L
L
O
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-12
L
L
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U