ARICardinals
2-3
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
50°F
4 mph
34
GBPackers
3-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
50°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
10
3
0
13
Packers
7
17
7
3
34
Spread
-5.5
Total
PUSH
47
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
437
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
5.5
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.20
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.46
Rushing Yards
89
179
Rush Attempts
23
38
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.37
-3.51
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
13
5
Penalty Yards
100
40
Penalty EPA
-11.74
-4.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
5
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U