ARICardinals
3-3
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
85°F
5 mph
30
CARPanthers
1-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
85°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
7
6
20
Panthers
8
10
6
0
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
349
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
5.2
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.03
Passing Yards
316
208
Comp/Att
35/47(74%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.09
Rushing Yards
24
141
Rush Attempts
10
36
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.08
-4.21
Sacks
8
1
Sack Yards
-47
-4
Sack EPA
-18.11
-1.41
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
78
40
Penalty EPA
-8.29
-3.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+94.0
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
20
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
5
2
Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
11
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U