ARICardinals
1-0
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
64°F
2 mph
18
NEPatriots
1-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
64°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
6
0
7
7
20
Patriots
3
3
3
9
18
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
242
387
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
4.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.09
Passing Yards
140
297
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.01
Rushing Yards
102
90
Rush Attempts
32
28
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.44
-4.12
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
-4.76
-5.05
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
39
60
Penalty EPA
-3.67
-7.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+359
Home nfelo
1,689
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.2
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
17
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Patriots Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U