ARICardinals
3-6
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
017
LARRams
3-5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
14
0
10
27
Rams
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
256
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.25
Passing Yards
220
190
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.35
Rushing Yards
78
66
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.83
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-3.95
-8.06
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
67
29
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-3.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+35.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-81.0
Home QB Adjustment
-132.6
Away QB Adjustment
-51.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-51.6
J. Wolford
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-132.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
30
19
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
15
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
10
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-8
O/U