nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ rams week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ARI logo
ARICardinals
6-3
21
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
13
LARRams
1-8
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
14
0
0
21
Rams
3
0
3
7
13

Spread

LAR logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
444
314
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
6.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
261
191
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.22
Rushing Yards
183
123
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.64
-2.94
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-24
Sack EPA
-5.17
-4.73
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-6.88
-6.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-206
Home nfelo
1,327
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
+20.8
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

K. Warner headshot

K. Warner

Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
Value
Ptile
02/01
10.6
98
09/13
-3.5
28
09/20
8.0
92
09/27
-2.4
35
10/11
6.3
87
10/18
4.8
81
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-6.5
13
11/08
9.9
96
11/15
9.4
95
M. Bulger headshot

M. Bulger

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
12/14
0.1
53
12/21
-3.9
22
12/28
-1.1
44
09/13
-5.4
17
09/20
-1.3
42
09/27
-4.4
22
10/18
-1.3
41
10/25
-8.2
7
11/01
-5.9
15
11/15
5.0
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
19
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
30
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
31
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/01
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-21
L
L
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
24
W
W
U
10/25
7
W
W
U
11/01
-13
L
L
O
11/08
20
W
W
O
11/15
11
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-28
L
L
U
09/20
-2
L
W
U
09/27
-19
L
L
O
10/04
-35
L
L
U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-36
L
L
O
11/01
7
W
W
U
11/15
-5
L
W
O