ARICardinals
6-3
21
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
013
LARRams
1-8
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
14
0
0
21
Rams
3
0
3
7
13
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
314
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
6.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
261
191
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.22
Rushing Yards
183
123
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.64
-2.94
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-24
Sack EPA
-5.17
-4.73
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-6.88
-6.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-206
Home nfelo
1,327
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
+20.8
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
M. Bulger
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
31
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U