ARICardinals
10-3
12
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
06
LARRams
6-7
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
6
3
3
12
Rams
3
0
0
3
6
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
274
280
Total Plays
64
61
Yards / Play
4.3
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.37
Passing Yards
131
211
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.36
-0.22
Rushing Yards
143
69
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
13
Passing 1st downs
4
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-1.63
-4.30
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
59
69
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-6.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+38.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-32.1
Market Regression
+68.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-32.1
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
31
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
8
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
5
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
3
EPA / Pass
28
6
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
19
9
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U