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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ rams week 17, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
5-9
24
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
62°F
0
31
LARRams
8-7
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
62°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
7
7
24
Rams
3
14
0
14
31

Spread

ARI logo
LAR logo
7
P

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
393
424
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
6.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
322
311
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.33
Rushing Yards
71
113
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.52
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
50%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
5
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-17.27
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-8
Sack EPA
-1.27
-1.36
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
63
91
Penalty EPA
-9.42
-4.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
+14.0
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Value
Ptile
10/13
8.4
94
10/20
-5.2
19
10/27
-5.1
19
10/31
5.0
84
11/10
3.7
76
11/17
6.3
88
12/01
-7.2
11
12/08
-7.4
10
12/15
4.5
81
12/22
-1.4
44
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Value
Ptile
10/13
-8.8
7
10/20
3.1
72
10/27
3.6
76
11/10
-8.6
7
11/17
-3.3
29
11/25
-4.1
25
12/01
7.3
91
12/08
1.3
63
12/15
0.4
54
12/21
3.6
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
16
17
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18

EPA

EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
5
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
17
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23

EPA

EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
6
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
1
W
W
O
10/20
6
W
W
U
10/27
-22
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-10
L
P
O
12/01
-27
L
L
U
12/08
-6
L
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
O
12/22
14
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
27
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
-5
L
L
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/25
-39
L
L
O
12/01
27
W
W
U
12/08
16
W
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/21
-3
L
W
O