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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ seahawks week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
5-8
34
TBD
Lumen Field
39°F
2 mph
31
SEASeahawks
9-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
39°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
0
20
34
Seahawks
0
3
7
21
31

Spread

ARI logo
+9

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
370
393
Total Plays
57
79
Yards / Play
6.5
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
276
315
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.15
Rushing Yards
94
78
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
11%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.69
-3.61
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-8
-37
Sack EPA
-1.80
-11.21
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
85
40
Penalty EPA
-9.59
-4.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model76.1%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.2%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.1
Home QB Adjustment
-20.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
+15.8
Final Difference
201.1
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
10/02
-2.0
34
10/17
1.1
57
10/23
0.2
50
10/30
1.0
56
11/13
0.2
50
11/20
-5.8
13
11/27
-1.6
36
12/04
4.2
80
12/11
-7.9
6
12/18
5.5
84
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
10/16
0.2
51
10/23
0.0
49
10/30
-2.7
28
11/07
5.0
83
11/13
5.5
84
11/20
1.9
64
11/27
-9.3
3
12/04
1.5
60
12/11
-11.2
1
12/15
1.2
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6

EPA

EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
20
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
29
23
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
21
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
15
14
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
26
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
12
W
W
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/23
0
T
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/13
3
W
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
O
11/27
-19
L
L
O
12/04
8
W
W
O
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-3-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
0
T
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
U
11/27
-9
L
L
U
12/04
33
W
W
O
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
21
W
W
U