ARICardinals
4-5
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
031
HOUTexans
3-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
14
7
0
21
Texans
0
10
7
14
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
357
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.01
Passing Yards
244
223
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.02
Rushing Yards
48
134
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.55
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
30%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.48
-11.11
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-7
Sack EPA
-3.38
-5.76
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
90
42
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-6.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+85.5
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-78.1
Away QB Adjustment
-49.1
Market Regression
+31.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-49.1
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-78.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
30
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
31
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
10
31
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Texans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
18
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
3
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
20
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U