ARICardinals
1-3
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
034
MINVikings
0-4
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
3
7
0
10
Vikings
28
0
3
3
34
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
332
Total Plays
76
59
Yards / Play
3.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.10
Passing Yards
214
160
Comp/Att
23/48(48%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.27
Rushing Yards
77
172
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
44%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.04
-4.46
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-40
-9
Sack EPA
-11.37
-1.17
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
64
35
Penalty EPA
-6.58
-3.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model66.7%
Spread Pick
Vikings-3.5
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
+7.7
Final Difference
120.8
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
9
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U