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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ vikings week 5, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
1-3
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
34
MINVikings
0-4
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
3
7
0
10
Vikings
28
0
3
3
34

Spread

MIN logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
291
332
Total Plays
76
59
Yards / Play
3.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.10
Passing Yards
214
160
Comp/Att
23/48(48%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.27
Rushing Yards
77
172
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
44%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.04
-4.46
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-40
-9
Sack EPA
-11.37
-1.17
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
64
35
Penalty EPA
-6.58
-3.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
120.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

K. Kolb headshot

K. Kolb

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
09/27
10.2
97
09/12
-7.7
8
10/10
1.1
55
10/17
7.9
93
10/24
-2.2
34
01/02
-12.6
1
09/11
4.3
78
09/18
-1.4
41
09/25
-3.2
30
10/02
-5.7
15
D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
10/31
-4.1
24
11/15
-2.2
34
11/21
1.9
60
11/28
-4.3
21
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
3.1
70
09/11
-5.0
19
09/18
-0.9
45
09/25
-1.4
42
10/02
-1.0
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10

EPA

EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
9
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
2
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
8
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-21
L
L
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
30
W
W
O
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/25
1
W
W
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
4
W
W
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/13
-18
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/02
-7
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-5
L
L
U