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nfelo...
predictions...
cardinals @ vikings week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread

Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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ARICardinals

1-4

17

TBD

U.S. Bank Stadium

70°F

0

27

MINVikings

2-2

TBD

U.S. Bank Stadium

70°F

0

Game Summary

Scoring

1

2

3

4

Total

Cardinals

3

1

0

7

11

Vikings

10

3

14

0

27

Spread

-9.5

Total

OVER

43.5

Game Statistics

General

Total Yards

268

411

Total Plays

55

70

Yards / Play

4.9

5.9

EPA / Play

-0.43

-0.21

Passing Yards

208

216

Comp/Att

21/31(68%)

24/34(71%)

Yards / Pass

6.7

6.4

EPA / Pass

-0.38

-0.35

Rushing Yards

60

195

Rush Attempts

20

32

Yards / Rush

3.0

6.1

EPA / Rush

-0.53

+0.00

Downs & Conversions

1st Downs

16

20

Passing 1st downs

9

12

Rushing 1st downs

5

8

Penalty 1st downs

2

--

3rd Down %

0%

36%

3rd Down Conversions

--

5

3rd Down Attempts

10

14

Red Zone %

33%

67%

Red Zone Conversions

1

2

Red Zone Attempts

3

3

Negative Plays

Turnovers

2

2

Interceptions

1

1

Fumbles

1

1

Turnover EPA

-9.66

-12.33

Sacks

4

4

Sack Yards

-32

-17

Sack EPA

-7.04

-12.22

Penalties

5

9

Penalty Yards

30

52

Penalty EPA

-2.45

-5.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner

MINVikingsFavored

Opening

-10.5

Current

-9.5

Model

-12.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%

Model84.3%

Spread Pick

Vikings-9.5

Projected +EV

Expected Value

+15.9%

Cover Probability

60.7%

Projection Detail

nfelo Difference

+349

Home nfelo

1,607

Away nfelo

1,400

Home Field

+88.0

Base HFA

+57.6

Divisional Adj

--

Home Bye Adj

--

Away Bye Adj

--

Surface Adj

+20.1

Time Adj

+10.3

Net QB Adjustment

+53.0

Home QB Adjustment

+21.5

Away QB Adjustment

-31.4

Market Regression

-11.8

Final Difference

291.9

Model Spread

-12.5

Quarterbacks

J. Rosen

Proj. Value

-5.8

Team Elo Adj

-31.4

Value

Ptile

K. Cousins

Proj. Value

+0.0

Team Elo Adj

+21.5

Value

Ptile

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense

Total

Points / Game

32

10

Yards / Game

32

4

Passing Yards / Game

28

3

Rushing Yards / Game

32

14

EPA

EPA / Play

32

2

EPA / Pass

32

1

EPA / Rush

30

6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

30

17

Interceptions / Game

28

20

Fumbles / Game

22

19

Turnover EPA / Game

3

19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

32

1

4th Down Efficiency

32

6

RZ Efficiency

8

3

Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense

Total

Points / Game

18

26

Yards / Game

20

21

Passing Yards / Game

6

14

Rushing Yards / Game

29

32

EPA

EPA / Play

27

14

EPA / Pass

25

12

EPA / Rush

32

29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

31

4

Interceptions / Game

8

29

Fumbles / Game

25

15

Turnover EPA / Game

10

11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

26

16

4th Down Efficiency

29

24

RZ Efficiency

21

22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Cardinals

4-6

SU

6-4

ATS

3-7

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U

Vikings

6-3-1

SU

5-5

ATS

4-6

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U