LACChargers
9-7
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
5 mph
10
CINBengals
11-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
10
10
27
Bengals
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
439
Total Plays
57
79
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.16
Passing Yards
122
326
Comp/Att
12/16(75%)
29/51(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.30
Rushing Yards
196
113
Rush Attempts
40
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-18.24
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-1.91
-3.79
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
28
38
Penalty EPA
-2.84
-6.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model77.8%
Spread Pick
Bengals-6.5
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+25.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
-7.3
Final Difference
218.3
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
26
24
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U