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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ bengals week 18, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
9-7
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
5 mph
10
CINBengals
11-5
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
10
10
27
Bengals
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

LAC logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
318
439
Total Plays
57
79
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.16
Passing Yards
122
326
Comp/Att
12/16(75%)
29/51(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.30
Rushing Yards
196
113
Rush Attempts
40
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-18.24
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-1.91
-3.79
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
28
38
Penalty EPA
-2.84
-6.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model77.8%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+25.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
-7.3
Final Difference
218.3
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
10/20
4.8
83
11/03
3.0
71
11/10
-1.7
41
11/17
0.5
54
11/24
10.3
96
12/01
0.5
53
12/08
5.3
84
12/12
-0.4
48
12/22
-3.2
30
12/29
0.6
54
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
Value
Ptile
10/20
9.5
95
10/27
8.6
93
10/31
-6.9
11
11/10
-8.5
6
11/17
-4.7
20
12/01
-1.6
41
12/08
9.3
95
12/15
2.7
69
12/22
9.2
94
12/29
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chargers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
10
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bengals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
20
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
26
24
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
18
W
W
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
-8
L
L
U
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/22
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
40
W
W
O
10/31
-2
L
L
P
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
28
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
O