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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ bills week 2, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
0-1
31
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
6 mph
20
BUFBills
0-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
14
14
0
3
31
Bills
0
6
7
7
20

Spread

LAC logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
349
263
Total Plays
55
59
Yards / Play
6.3
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
240
179
Comp/Att
23/27(85%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.07
Rushing Yards
109
84
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.55
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-16
-36
Sack EPA
-3.26
-6.81
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
31
Penalty EPA
-6.92
-3.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model66.4%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.9%
Cover Probability
60.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+108.2
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
+50.7
Home QB Adjustment
+69.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
+16.2
Final Difference
-118.0
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
10/29
-3.5
28
11/12
2.5
70
11/19
2.8
72
11/23
11.8
99
12/03
4.9
84
12/10
3.0
74
12/16
-7.3
11
12/24
1.5
63
12/31
10.5
98
09/09
8.4
92
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+69.1
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Chargers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15

EPA

EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
9
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bills logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
20
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
16
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/19
30
W
W
O
11/23
22
W
W
U
12/03
9
W
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/24
7
W
L
U
12/31
20
W
W
U
09/09
-10
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-37
L
L
O
11/19
-30
L
L
O
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
6
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/24
-21
L
L
O
12/31
6
W
W
U
01/07
-7
L
W
U
09/09
-44
L
L
O