LACChargers
0-1
31
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
6 mph
20
BUFBills
0-1
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
14
14
0
3
31
Bills
0
6
7
7
20
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
263
Total Plays
55
59
Yards / Play
6.3
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
240
179
Comp/Att
23/27(85%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.07
Rushing Yards
109
84
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.55
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-16
-36
Sack EPA
-3.26
-6.81
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
31
Penalty EPA
-6.92
-3.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
Bills+7.5
Expected Value
+17.4%
Cover Probability
61.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+106.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+30.4
Net QB Adjustment
+50.7
Home QB Adjustment
+69.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-111.9
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+69.1
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U