LACChargers
-
21
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
12 mph
24
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
0
14
21
Broncos
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
249
321
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
4.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.04
Passing Yards
185
181
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.20
Rushing Yards
64
140
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.30
-9.53
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-38
Sack EPA
-1.57
-5.07
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
40
62
Penalty EPA
-3.44
-6.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
22
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
23
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
32
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U