LACChargers
4-5
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
62°F
3 mph
30
DENBroncos
6-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
62°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
1
0
7
7
15
Broncos
0
17
7
6
30
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
386
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
4.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.14
Passing Yards
224
253
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.21
Rushing Yards
53
133
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
2.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
19%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.70
-11.98
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-34
-17
Sack EPA
-9.43
-4.09
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
65
30
Penalty EPA
-5.73
-1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+45.2
Home QB Adjustment
+36.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+36.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
14
14
Fumbles / Game
23
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U