LACChargers
4-11
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
5 mph
27
DENBroncos
11-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
3
7
7
20
Broncos
7
0
7
13
27
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
503
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
4.7
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.08
Passing Yards
207
293
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.25
Rushing Yards
110
210
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-4.12
-21.95
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-8
Sack EPA
-5.25
-6.13
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-3.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.7
Home QB Adjustment
-34.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
+47.3
Final Difference
232.6
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-34.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
4
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
28
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U